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Less like spring and more like winter in the '8-14 Day Outlook'

8-14 Day Outlook Temperature Probability.JPG

We've all be spoiled for the beginning of February as temperatures have been extremely mild for the Treasure Valley, seeing some record warm days, and for the entire west as well. This pattern changed just in the last day or so, temperatures have dropped back down to near normal levels with help from a few weak cold fronts. The average high temperature for Boise for today is 43 degrees and it gradually warms to 50 degrees by the end of the month. Our temperature trend this next week appears to be closer to what we typically see in February with daytime highs expected in the mid to upper 40's. So, after a few weeks of mild temperatures, we're back to reality with cooler weather. In fact, the extended outlook(8-14 day forecast) shows a 40% probability of southwest Idaho being below average for temperatures for Feb. 18-24, a completely different story from how we started the month.

Many of the long range models show a significant dip in the Jet Stream as a longwave trough pulls down air from polar regions during that time frame. The computer chart below shows temperature contours at 700 mb(roughly 10,000 feet) in Celcius. This would suggest that temperatures would likely be in the 30's for highs in the Treasure Valley and frigid cold temperatures for the higher elevations.

Now that we have a shot of winter returning to the region you'd think we have a good chance at seeing some snow, right? Well, that's not necessarily the case for much of the west. The current outlook sticks to the trend we've seen so far this winter, we remain just on the wrong side of the moisture trail with the majority of it ending up to the north and east of us. The 8-14 Day Outlook shows the southwest region of Idaho, and eastern Oregon, remaining on the drier side with a 33% chance of seeing below normal precipitation.

What is 'normal' precipitation? The Boise area 'normally' receives about an inch of precipitation during the month of February which includes roughly 4 inches of snowfall, so far, there's only been a trace of precipitation reported. Our best chance of seeing any showers this week will be on Wednesday, even then the chances aren't great.

For the latest forecast be sure to visit our weather page and watch us tonight on KBOI 2News at 5:30 and 10:00 PM.


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