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Treasure Valley snow forecast grabs attention on Facebook

The forecast is much different than what the National Weather Service is predicting for next week. (KBOI Staff Photo)

The Facebook page Treasure Valley Weather Headquarters is receiving a lot of attention for a recent forecast.

That forecast is much different than what the National Weather Service is predicting for next week.

The page's creator Kody Wilson is claiming the Treasure Valley could see 8-14 inches of snow in the next ten days. The post has been shared more than 800 times.

Wilson started the Treasure Valley Weather Headquarters Facebook page about a year ago.

He lives in Colorado but grew up here in the Treasure Valley and has a Bachelors Degree in science with an emphasis in meteorology from the University of Colorado.

"Growing up in the Treasure Valley I recognize that it was a very difficult place to forecast the weather and a lot of that has to do with topography because we're surrounded by mountains and higher elevations essentially on all four sides," says Wilson. "So there's a lot of variable in forecast models we rely on as professionals don't take into consideration."

NWS Boise says this can be true, but that same topography can also make weather prediction easier at times.

The forecasting model Wilson uses is also used by the National Weather Service.

"We have several models that we look at for the long range portion of the forecast, one of the most reliable is the GFS, that'a a global spectrum model," says NWS meteorologist Jay Breidenbach. "It's a model that we run four times a day here in the National Weather Service."

Wilson says while the National Weather Service has trained professionals he believes they're conservative when predicting upcoming weather. He takes a different approach.

"It is not my intention to cause panic it really is not," says Wilson. "It's my intention to get people aware to increase their sensory acuity and make sure that they understand what the worst case scenario is."

Breidenbach says they do see snow in the mountains in the long range forecast but it's still questionable here in the valley.

He says their mission is protection of life and property. Their team works 24 hours a day to get it exactly right so people can take necessary protective action.

"Certainly it's great to prepare for worst case scenarios that far out ten days into the future, there's so much uncertainty in the forecast that if you're always looking at the worst case scenario than you can almost always find a model run that's going to show a worst case scenario so the key is to narrow down the range of possibilities to something that's realistic," says Breidenbach.

Wilson wants to remind everyone who follows him that he is presenting a possibility not a certainty.

"I'm not saying it's going to happen I'm saying it's possible that it's going to happen," says Wilson. "I would rather be prepared and have something and not need it than be completely blindsided and not have anything and not be prepared."

Wilson says people should do their research before deciding who to listen to when it comes to weather.


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